The catalogue Supply ChainSupplier CollaborationTransactional

Service SC8A

Forecast Collaboration

Runs transactional. Starts when a threshold is crossed. It runs 4,122 times a week across 5 stations. One of those stations stops for a person and 4 are done by an agent, 3 of them on the shared spine.

Runs a week

4,122

127 in flight right now.

Stations

1 person · 1 agent · 3 spine

Agent share of steps

80%

Autonomy on this service is set at 79% against a ceiling of 85%.

Decisions a person makes

Held by Director, Supplier Collaboration.

Touchless

79%

Share of runs that complete without anybody opening them.

Timetable against actual

6.8h

Actual 7.5h, 0.7h over the timetable.

Operations

The lane diagram

Read it left to right. more

Person1 station and 45% of the dwellAgent1 station and 1% of the dwellShared spine3 stations and 54% of the dwell3 crossings between lanes

Human

decides

Agent

does the work

GBS

shared spine

System

attributed by rule

Group ERP — Materials and Inventory

Enterprise Data Warehouse

Group ERP — Materials and Inventory

Click any station to see who does it, what it costs in time, the rule that gates it and the system attributed to it.

Operations

Every station in order

The same stations as a list, with the dwell the estate records against each one and the system a station of that shape would touch.

#	Station	Lane	Who	Layer	Dwell	Target	In flight	System
1	Publish forecast	GBS	Forecast Sharing Agent	gbs	23m	33m	23	Group ERP — Materials and Inventory
2	Collect commit	GBS	Forecast Sharing Agent	gbs	2h 1m	2h 44m	46	Group ERP — Materials and Inventory
3	Detect gap	Agent	Capacity Visibility Agent	workflow	5m	11m	9	Enterprise Data Warehouse
4	Negotiate Held for a named human when the unit exceeds the commit decision envelope, when confidence falls below the floor, or when a policy clause is engaged.	Human	Director, Supplier Collaboration	policy	4h 11m	9h 36m	5	Group ERP — Materials and Inventory
5	Confirm	GBS	Forecast Sharing Agent	gbs	2h 32m	3h 53m	44	Group ERP — Materials and Inventory

Operations

Run it

Change the volume, move the autonomy line, release a gate, and watch what happens to the hours in each lane and to the time it takes one run to get through. more

Move something

Demand100%

4,122 a week is what the estate records. more

Decisions handed to agents0 of 0

This service has at most one gate, so there is nothing to hand over without removing the last human decision.

People on the gates493 people

Each one is assumed to have 2,100 productive minutes a week, which is 35 hours.

Agent speed100%

100% is the dwell the estate records today. more

Person time a week

17,243.7h

4,122 items at 251 minutes of decision each.

Agent time a week

20,678.7h

301 minutes an item, which does not compete for a person.

Gate load

100%

Inside capacity, with 11.3h of headroom.

Stations without a person

80%

1 gate left on 5 stations.

Where an item spends its time

45% waiting on a person

55% in the agent lane

An item now takes 552 minutes of worked time end to end against 552 in the recorded estate, a change of +0%. This is worked time, not calendar time: nothing here models a queue or a weekend.

What this model is, on Forecast Collaboration

The simulation is arithmetic on the estate, not a queueing model. more

How it runs

Run it again, going wrong

The same unit and the same stations, broken the way the estate already records breaking. more

5 stations, walked twice

Once clean, once with the categories the estate counts

This is the same unit on the same stations, breaking. more

No break below was chosen. more

One play head, two tracks, the same scale. The clean run stops when it runs out of stations; the other one keeps going.

As written

5 stations, nothing waiting, nothing sent back

0 min of 9.2 hrs

now Publish forecast · Forecast Sharing Agent · 23 min

As the ledger has it

the same stations, plus 5 categories the estate already counts

0 min of 23 hrs

now Publish forecast · Forecast Sharing Agent · 23 min

personagentshared spinework the break addsnobody working it

What breaks, and where it is counted

No break below was chosen. more

What the two runs say together

5 counted categories land on this procedure. more

What this run cannot claim

These breaks are shown together on one unit so the shape of a bad day fits on one screen. more

The separation register records a duty conflict against a sub-function and a named post, not against one procedure. more

Two clocks run. Worked time is the sum of the time the work is actually being done … more

Live observability

Systems this service would touch

Attributed by rule from the function's system list. more

2 systems attributed

0 of 2 returning records

The system register

Group ERP — Materials and Inventory

SAP S/4HANA MM · supply · bidirectional · high

modeled

4 of 5 stations attributed here · would write back

Enterprise Data Warehouse

Snowflake · analytics · inbound · critical

modeled

1 of 5 stations attributed here · read only

System attribution is a rule, not a reading. more

Who runs it

Orchestration and accountability

Orchestrated by: Supplier Collaboration Orchestrator
That orchestrator’s remit: Owns commit work end to end inside Supply Chain. Runs 3 lines across 14 stations, drains the repeatable share into the M2D tower, and holds 3 human gates.
Accountable person: Director, Supplier Collaboration
Sub-function: Supplier Collaboration
Shared spine tower: m2d
Hand-over points: None — this service stays inside its function

Other services in this sub-function

2 alongside this one

Supply AlertSC8B Joint Planning SessionSC8C

What this page is and is not

This is a catalogue of the modeled estate. more