The catalogue Supply ChainDemand PlanningAnalytical

Service SC1C

Forecast Accuracy Review

Runs analytical. Starts when the reporting period closes. It runs 57 times a week across 4 stations. One of those stations stops for a person and 3 are done by an agent, none of them on the shared spine.

Runs a week

80 in flight right now.

Stations

1 person · 3 agent · 0 spine

Agent share of steps

75%

Autonomy on this service is set at 84% against a ceiling of 87%.

Decisions a person makes

Held by Director, Demand Planning.

Touchless

64%

Share of runs that complete without anybody opening them.

Timetable against actual

44.5h

Actual 54.8h, 10.3h over the timetable.

Operations

The lane diagram

Read it left to right. more

Person1 station and 55% of the dwellAgent3 stations and 45% of the dwellShared spine0 stations and 0% of the dwell1 crossing between lanes

Human

decides

Agent

does the work

GBS

shared spine

System

attributed by rule

Enterprise Data Warehouse

Group ERP — Materials and Inventory

Supply and Demand Planning

Group ERP — Materials and Inventory

Click any station to see who does it, what it costs in time, the rule that gates it and the system attributed to it.

Operations

Every station in order

The same stations as a list, with the dwell the estate records against each one and the system a station of that shape would touch.

#	Station	Lane	Who	Layer	Dwell	Target	In flight	System
1	Measure error	Agent	Statistical Forecast Agent	workflow	4h 47m	7h 44m	26	Enterprise Data Warehouse
2	Attribute	Agent	Promotion Lift Agent	workflow	12h 30m	25h 38m	25	Group ERP — Materials and Inventory
3	Draft learning	Agent	New Product Curve Agent	workflow	3h 2m	6h 4m	29	Supply and Demand Planning
4	Leader review Held for a named human when the unit exceeds the forecast item decision envelope, when confidence falls below the floor, or when a policy clause is engaged.	Human	Director, Demand Planning	policy	25h 20m	51h 2m	0	Group ERP — Materials and Inventory

Operations

Run it

Change the volume, move the autonomy line, release a gate, and watch what happens to the hours in each lane and to the time it takes one run to get through. more

Move something

Demand100%

57 a week is what the estate records. more

Decisions handed to agents0 of 0

This service has at most one gate, so there is nothing to hand over without removing the last human decision.

People on the gates42 people

Each one is assumed to have 2,100 productive minutes a week, which is 35 hours.

Agent speed100%

100% is the dwell the estate records today. more

Person time a week

1,444h

57 items at 1,520 minutes of decision each.

Agent time a week

1,158.1h

1,219 minutes an item, which does not compete for a person.

Gate load

98%

Inside capacity, with 26h of headroom.

Stations without a person

75%

1 gate left on 4 stations.

Where an item spends its time

55% waiting on a person

45% in the agent lane

An item now takes 2,739 minutes of worked time end to end against 2,739 in the recorded estate, a change of +0%. This is worked time, not calendar time: nothing here models a queue or a weekend.

What this model is, on Forecast Accuracy Review

The simulation is arithmetic on the estate, not a queueing model. more

How it runs

Run it again, going wrong

The same unit and the same stations, broken the way the estate already records breaking. more

4 stations, walked twice

Once clean, once with the categories the estate counts

This is the same unit on the same stations, breaking. more

No break below was chosen. more

One play head, two tracks, the same scale. The clean run stops when it runs out of stations; the other one keeps going.

As written

4 stations, nothing waiting, nothing sent back

0 min of 46 hrs

now Measure error · Statistical Forecast Agent · 4.8 hrs

As the ledger has it

the same stations, plus 3 categories the estate already counts

0 min of 2.1 days

now Measure error · Statistical Forecast Agent · 4.8 hrs

personagentshared spinework the break addsnobody working it

What breaks, and where it is counted

No break below was chosen. more

What the two runs say together

3 counted categories land on this procedure. more

What this run cannot claim

These breaks are shown together on one unit so the shape of a bad day fits on one screen. more

Two clocks run. Worked time is the sum of the time the work is actually being done … more

Live observability

Systems this service would touch

Attributed by rule from the function's system list. more

3 systems attributed

0 of 3 returning records

The system register

Group ERP — Materials and Inventory

SAP S/4HANA MM · supply · bidirectional · high

modeled

2 of 4 stations attributed here · would write back

Enterprise Data Warehouse

Snowflake · analytics · inbound · critical

modeled

1 of 4 stations attributed here · read only

Supply and Demand Planning

Kinaxis RapidResponse · supply · bidirectional · high

modeled

1 of 4 stations attributed here · would write back

System attribution is a rule, not a reading. more

Who runs it

Orchestration and accountability

Orchestrated by: Demand Planning Orchestrator
That orchestrator’s remit: Owns forecast item work end to end inside Supply Chain. Runs 3 lines across 16 stations, drains the repeatable share into the P2P tower, and holds 3 human gates.
Accountable person: Director, Demand Planning
Sub-function: Demand Planning
Shared spine tower: Not on the shared spine
Hand-over points: None — this service stays inside its function

Other services in this sub-function

2 alongside this one

Monthly Demand CycleSC1A Demand Signal ResponseSC1B

What this page is and is not

This is a catalogue of the modeled estate. more