LensReading which lens this session carries.
Supply Chain/Order Promising

Sub-function

Order Promising

Owns promise work end to end inside Supply Chain. Runs 3 lines across 15 stations, drains the repeatable share into the M2D tower, and holds 2 human gates.

orchestrator Order Promising Orchestratorhuman owner Director, Order Promising routes into m2d

Estate rating

BBB

75 / 100

autonomy 87%cap 90%

Promising is a calculation against live supply and runs touchless. Telling a customer the promise will be missed is a human communication decision.

Agents

8

Lines

3

Units / wk

5,643

Timetable vs actual

20.0h → 22.2h

Cost / unit

$13

was $42

Run-rate saving

$8.6M

annualized at this volume

The 8 agents running this sub-function

Grouped by what they are for, not by where they sit. The agent org is process-shaped.

OrchestratorOwns the queue and arbitrates between desks.

Order Promising Orchestrator

Owns the order promising lane end to end. Sequences the other agents, holds the timetable, and decides what surfaces to a human.

ObserveA3197 / 24h91%13% ovr$2.73/task

ceiling A4 · escalates to Escalates to Director, Order Promising when the unit falls outside the decision envelope or confidence drops below the floor.

AI GBSRuns the shared transaction spine.

Available-to-Promise Agent

Runs the repeatable portion of order promising inside the shared transaction spine at spine cost and spine controls.

AI GBSA42,135 / 24h93%3% ovr$0.31/task

ceiling A4 · escalates to Escalates to Director, Order Promising when the unit falls outside the decision envelope or confidence drops below the floor.

Date Commit Agent

Runs the repeatable portion of order promising inside the shared transaction spine at spine cost and spine controls.

AI GBSA41,163 / 24h91%1% ovr$0.18/task

ceiling A4 · escalates to Escalates to Director, Order Promising when the unit falls outside the decision envelope or confidence drops below the floor.

TaskExecutes stations on a line.

Capable-to-Promise Agent

Executes the order promising step it owns, posts its evidence, and hands the unit to the next stage.

WorkflowA41,405 / 24h92%8% ovr$0.37/task

ceiling A4 · escalates to Escalates to Director, Order Promising when the unit falls outside the decision envelope or confidence drops below the floor.

Substitution Agent

Executes the order promising step it owns, posts its evidence, and hands the unit to the next stage.

WorkflowA41,928 / 24h90%7% ovr$0.33/task

ceiling A4 · escalates to Escalates to Director, Order Promising when the unit falls outside the decision envelope or confidence drops below the floor.

Promise Accuracy Agent

Executes the order promising step it owns, posts its evidence, and hands the unit to the next stage.

WorkflowA41,266 / 24h96%6% ovr$0.50/task

ceiling A4 · escalates to Escalates to Director, Order Promising when the unit falls outside the decision envelope or confidence drops below the floor.

PolicyAuthors and versions the binding rules.

Promise Policy Agent

Holds the rules that bind every other agent in order promising. Versions them, tests them against live decisions, and blocks work that breaches them.

PolicyA2147 / 24h93%7% ovr$8.96/task

ceiling A4 · escalates to Escalates on any decision that would breach a live policy version, with the clause cited.

ChallengerPaid to disagree before a human has to.

Order Promising Challenger Agent

Adversarial reviewer for order promising. Argues the opposite case on every position and flags where the evidence does not carry the claim.

StrategyA296 / 24h92%12% ovr$3.25/task

ceiling A4 · escalates to Escalates when a ratified position is still running against a break condition it flagged.

Estate rating breakdown

Seven control dimensions. Judgment readiness runs against autonomy on purpose.

Control Coverage73
Evidence Quality89
Override Discipline79
Data Integrity75
Recovery Readiness75
Cost Transparency75
Judgment Readiness57

People

What the humans stopped doing, and what they do now.

headcount on this work30.521.3 FTE

Redeployed into cross-function process redesign.

inference cost per unit$2.72

Lines running in this sub-function

Each line is a workflow. Click a line to walk it station by station.

8 clear5 evidenced4 held
SC9AOrder PromiseTransactional · 6 stations

Receive request

1 live

Check availability

3 live

Model capability

17 q

Propose substitution

3 q

Commit date

8 q

Confirm

3 live

SC9BPromise Breach ResponseTransactional · 5 stations

Detect slip

1 live

Assess customer impact

1 live

Draft communication

0 q

Owner approve

2 live

Notify

4 live

SC9CPromise Accuracy ReadAnalytical · 4 stations

Measure

1 live

Attribute

1 live

Draft finding

6 q

Leader review

7 q

Strategy positions this sub-function holds

An agent that only executes is a robot. These are the calls it made, the argument against each one, and what would prove it wrong.

SC9-POS-100

Order Promising Operating Position

In challengev3

Is the current cost per promise defensible against external comparators once inference spend is counted in full?

Hold the ceiling at A4 for order promising. Promising is a calculation against live supply and runs touchless. Telling a customer the promise will be missed is a human communication decision. Raise it only after two consecutive quarters where the override rate stays under five percent and every override has a written cause.

confidence

80%

The challenge — Order Promising Challenger Agent

Order Promising Challenger Agent argues the recommendation leans on 5 quarters of data from a period with no volume shock. The confidence band overlaps the alternative, and the position does not say what it would take to be wrong. Recorded as a dissent, not a block.

Break conditions

  • ·Override rate rises above 14 percent for two consecutive months
  • ·Cost per promise stops falling while volume keeps rising
  • ·A control failure in this lane reaches a customer or a regulator

Evidence gaps

  • ·No independent test of the control evidence behind the touchless rate
Alternative consideredCostRiskVerdict
Hold the current position$85k run rateKnown and priced. Cedes ground if comparators move faster.live
Raise the ceiling one level now$219k to build controlsOverride rate is 4 percent; raising the ceiling before that settles imports the error into production.rejected on evidence
Move the exception tail to the spine$963k transitionLoses local context. Rework risk on the cases that are hardest to recover.under review
authored by Order Promising Orchestratorratifier Director, Order Promising3 stated assumptions

Policy register

The rules the agents above are bound by. Version, owner, approver, and the agents each rule constrains.

RefRuleScopeOwner agentApproved byVersionStatus
SC9-POL-200

Order Promising Decision Envelope

Agents in this lane may act without a human when the promise sits inside the stated value, risk and confidence envelope. Outside it, the unit holds at a gate with a named approver and a running clock.

binds 5 agents · APAC

envelopePromise Policy AgentDirector, Order Promisingv5.5Active
SC9-POL-201

Order Promising Evidence Standard

Every autonomous decision writes inputs, the rule version applied, the model and prompt version, the output and a reversal path. An action with no evidence record is treated as a control failure, not a fast decision.

binds 5 agents · LATAM · US

evidencePromise Policy AgentDirector, Order Promisingv3.4Active
SC9-POL-202

Order Promising Escalation Rule

Escalation is mandatory when confidence falls below the floor, when two options sit inside the confidence band, or when a break condition on a ratified position fires. Director, Order Promising owns the response clock.

binds 5 agents · Global · EU

escalationPromise Policy AgentDirector, Order Promisingv3.0Active
SC9-POL-203

Order Promising Autonomy Ceiling

The ceiling for this lane is 90 on the platform scale. Promising is a calculation against live supply and runs touchless. Telling a customer the promise will be missed is a human communication decision. The ceiling is a governance decision, not a technical limit, and only Director, Order Promising can propose moving it.

binds 5 agents · Global

ceilingPromise Policy AgentDirector, Order Promisingv5.0Active