Sub-function
Demand Planning
Owns forecast item work end to end inside Supply Chain. Runs 3 lines across 16 stations, drains the repeatable share into the P2P tower, and holds 3 human gates.
Estate rating
BBB
75 / 100
Statistical forecasting and in-band adjustment are fully agentic. The consensus number that drives supply commitments is locked by a named planner.
Agents
9
Lines
3
Units / wk
8,143
Timetable vs actual
14.8h → 14.6h
Cost / unit
$6.81
was $28
Run-rate saving
$9.1M
annualized at this volume
The 9 agents running this sub-function
Grouped by what they are for, not by where they sit. The agent org is process-shaped.
Demand Planning Orchestrator
Owns the demand planning lane end to end. Sequences the other agents, holds the timetable, and decides what surfaces to a human.
ceiling A4 · escalates to Escalates to Director, Demand Planning when the unit falls outside the decision envelope or confidence drops below the floor.
Statistical Forecast Agent
Runs the repeatable portion of demand planning inside the shared transaction spine at spine cost and spine controls.
ceiling A4 · escalates to Escalates to Director, Demand Planning when the unit falls outside the decision envelope or confidence drops below the floor.
Consensus Reconciliation Agent
Runs the repeatable portion of demand planning inside the shared transaction spine at spine cost and spine controls.
ceiling A4 · escalates to Escalates to Director, Demand Planning when the unit falls outside the decision envelope or confidence drops below the floor.
Promotion Lift Agent
Executes the demand planning step it owns, posts its evidence, and hands the unit to the next stage.
ceiling A4 · escalates to Escalates to Director, Demand Planning when the unit falls outside the decision envelope or confidence drops below the floor.
New Product Curve Agent
Executes the demand planning step it owns, posts its evidence, and hands the unit to the next stage.
ceiling A4 · escalates to Escalates to Director, Demand Planning when the unit falls outside the decision envelope or confidence drops below the floor.
Forecast Error Agent
Executes the demand planning step it owns, posts its evidence, and hands the unit to the next stage.
ceiling A4 · escalates to Escalates to Director, Demand Planning when the unit falls outside the decision envelope or confidence drops below the floor.
Demand Signal Agent
Watches demand planning continuously. Detects drift, quantifies it, and routes what matters without waiting for a reporting cycle.
ceiling A4 · escalates to Escalates to Director, Demand Planning when the unit falls outside the decision envelope or confidence drops below the floor.
Planning Policy Agent
Holds the rules that bind every other agent in demand planning. Versions them, tests them against live decisions, and blocks work that breaches them.
ceiling A4 · escalates to Escalates on any decision that would breach a live policy version, with the clause cited.
Demand Planning Challenger Agent
Adversarial reviewer for demand planning. Argues the opposite case on every position and flags where the evidence does not carry the claim.
ceiling A4 · escalates to Escalates when a ratified position is still running against a break condition it flagged.
Estate rating breakdown
Seven control dimensions. Judgment readiness runs against autonomy on purpose.
People
What the humans stopped doing, and what they do now.
Redeployed into data stewardship and evidence quality.
Lines running in this sub-function
Each line is a workflow. Click a line to walk it station by station.
Strategy positions this sub-function holds
An agent that only executes is a robot. These are the calls it made, the argument against each one, and what would prove it wrong.
Demand Planning Operating Position
Ratifiedv2Where should the autonomy ceiling for demand planning sit over the next four quarters, and what evidence would justify moving it?
Hold the ceiling at A4 for demand planning. Statistical forecasting and in-band adjustment are fully agentic. The consensus number that drives supply commitments is locked by a named planner. Raise it only after two consecutive quarters where the override rate stays under five percent and every override has a written cause.
confidence
69%
The challenge — Demand Planning Challenger Agent
Demand Planning Challenger Agent argues the recommendation leans on 5 quarters of data from a period with no volume shock. The confidence band overlaps the alternative, and the position does not say what it would take to be wrong. Recorded as a dissent, not a block.
Break conditions
- ·Override rate rises above 14 percent for two consecutive months
- ·Cost per forecast item stops falling while volume keeps rising
- ·A control failure in this lane reaches a customer or a regulator
Evidence gaps
- ·No external comparator on a like-for-like unit definition
- ·Exception cases under $27k are sampled, not fully measured
| Alternative considered | Cost | Risk | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold the current position | $306k run rate | Known and priced. Cedes ground if comparators move faster. | not selected |
| Raise the ceiling one level now | $1547k to build controls | Override rate is 9 percent; raising the ceiling before that settles imports the error into production. | rejected on evidence |
| Move the exception tail to the spine | $549k transition | Loses local context. Rework risk on the cases that are hardest to recover. | selected |
Ratified 5 months ago. Measured since: cost per forecast item rose 11 percent against a forecast that it would fall 11 percent.
Policy register
The rules the agents above are bound by. Version, owner, approver, and the agents each rule constrains.
| Ref | Rule | Scope | Owner agent | Approved by | Version | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC1-POL-200 | Demand Planning Decision Envelope Agents in this lane may act without a human when the forecast item sits inside the stated value, risk and confidence envelope. Outside it, the unit holds at a gate with a named approver and a running clock. binds 5 agents · Global · EU | envelope | Planning Policy Agent | Director, Demand Planning | v1.6 | Active |
| SC1-POL-201 | Demand Planning Evidence Standard Every autonomous decision writes inputs, the rule version applied, the model and prompt version, the output and a reversal path. An action with no evidence record is treated as a control failure, not a fast decision. binds 5 agents · Global | evidence | Planning Policy Agent | Director, Demand Planning | v3.8 | Active |