LensReading which lens this session carries.
Research & Development/Innovation Portfolio

Sub-function

Innovation Portfolio

Owns program work end to end inside Research & Development. Runs 3 lines across 16 stations, drains the repeatable share into no shared tower, and holds 4 human gates.

orchestrator Innovation Portfolio Orchestratorhuman owner VP Innovationno shared tower — judgment density too high

Estate rating

BB

67 / 100

autonomy 58%cap 64%

Agents assemble evidence and even recommend killing a program. Stopping or funding research is a capital decision with careers attached, so a committee owns it.

Agents

8

Lines

3

Units / wk

11,992

Timetable vs actual

7.8h → 7.7h

Cost / unit

$5.54

was $12

Run-rate saving

$4.1M

annualized at this volume

The 8 agents running this sub-function

Grouped by what they are for, not by where they sit. The agent org is process-shaped.

OrchestratorOwns the queue and arbitrates between desks.

Innovation Portfolio Orchestrator

Owns the innovation portfolio lane end to end. Sequences the other agents, holds the timetable, and decides what surfaces to a human.

ObserveA2180 / 24h96%9% ovr$8.85/task

ceiling A2 · escalates to Escalates to VP Innovation when the unit falls outside the decision envelope or confidence drops below the floor.

TaskExecutes stations on a line.

Idea Intake Agent

Executes the innovation portfolio step it owns, posts its evidence, and hands the unit to the next stage.

WorkflowA23,257 / 24h91%7% ovr$0.59/task

ceiling A2 · escalates to Escalates to VP Innovation when the unit falls outside the decision envelope or confidence drops below the floor.

Stage Gate Agent

Executes the innovation portfolio step it owns, posts its evidence, and hands the unit to the next stage.

WorkflowA22,671 / 24h97%5% ovr$0.62/task

ceiling A2 · escalates to Escalates to VP Innovation when the unit falls outside the decision envelope or confidence drops below the floor.

Portfolio Balance Agent

Executes the innovation portfolio step it owns, posts its evidence, and hands the unit to the next stage.

WorkflowA22,894 / 24h91%2% ovr$0.21/task

ceiling A2 · escalates to Escalates to VP Innovation when the unit falls outside the decision envelope or confidence drops below the floor.

Resource Allocation Agent

Executes the innovation portfolio step it owns, posts its evidence, and hands the unit to the next stage.

WorkflowA22,502 / 24h91%2% ovr$0.28/task

ceiling A2 · escalates to Escalates to VP Innovation when the unit falls outside the decision envelope or confidence drops below the floor.

ObserveWatches signals and watches the agents.

Kill Signal Agent

Watches innovation portfolio continuously. Detects drift, quantifies it, and routes what matters without waiting for a reporting cycle.

ObserveA2144 / 24h90%7% ovr$3.19/task

ceiling A2 · escalates to Escalates to VP Innovation when the unit falls outside the decision envelope or confidence drops below the floor.

StrategyForms and defends a position.

Portfolio Bets Agent

Authors positions on innovation portfolio. Frames the question, models the options, and writes a recommendation a human can ratify or reject.

StrategyA2171 / 24h89%17% ovr$11/task

ceiling A2 · escalates to Escalates when two options sit inside the confidence band and the evidence cannot separate them.

ChallengerPaid to disagree before a human has to.

Innovation Portfolio Challenger Agent

Adversarial reviewer for innovation portfolio. Argues the opposite case on every position and flags where the evidence does not carry the claim.

StrategyA2147 / 24h87%12% ovr$8.56/task

ceiling A2 · escalates to Escalates when a ratified position is still running against a break condition it flagged.

Estate rating breakdown

Seven control dimensions. Judgment readiness runs against autonomy on purpose.

Control Coverage66
Evidence Quality65
Override Discipline81
Data Integrity59
Recovery Readiness59
Cost Transparency81
Judgment Readiness61

People

What the humans stopped doing, and what they do now.

headcount on this work79.554.2 FTE

Redeployed into scenario work and strategy authoring review.

inference cost per unit$1.32

Lines running in this sub-function

Each line is a workflow. Click a line to walk it station by station.

6 clear4 evidenced0 held
RD2AStage Gate ReviewTransactional · 6 stations

Assemble evidence

19 q

Score against criteria

16 q

Draft recommendation

2 live

Gate committee decide

1 live

Fund or stop

1 live

Communicate

4 q

RD2BKill Signal EscalationTransactional · 5 stations

Detect failing signal

1 live

Assemble evidence

2 live

Draft recommendation

27 q

Leader decide

7 q

Wind down

2 live

RD2CPortfolio Bets PositionJudgment · 5 stations

Frame

1 live

Model bets

37 q

Draft position

36 q

Challenge

33 q

ExCo ratify

7 q

Strategy positions this sub-function holds

An agent that only executes is a robot. These are the calls it made, the argument against each one, and what would prove it wrong.

RD2-POS-100

Portfolio Bets Position

Draftv1

Where should the autonomy ceiling for innovation portfolio sit over the next four quarters, and what evidence would justify moving it?

Hold the ceiling at A2 for innovation portfolio. Agents assemble evidence and even recommend killing a program. Stopping or funding research is a capital decision with careers attached, so a committee owns it. Raise it only after two consecutive quarters where the override rate stays under five percent and every override has a written cause.

confidence

83%

The challenge — Innovation Portfolio Challenger Agent

Innovation Portfolio Challenger Agent argues the recommendation leans on 2 quarters of data from a period with no volume shock. The confidence band overlaps the alternative, and the position does not say what it would take to be wrong. Recorded as a dissent, not a block.

Break conditions

  • ·Override rate rises above 8 percent for two consecutive months
  • ·Cost per program stops falling while volume keeps rising
  • ·A control failure in this lane reaches a customer or a regulator

Evidence gaps

  • ·No external comparator on a like-for-like unit definition
  • ·Exception cases under $21k are sampled, not fully measured
Alternative consideredCostRiskVerdict
Hold the current position$660k run rateKnown and priced. Cedes ground if comparators move faster.live
Raise the ceiling one level now$1127k to build controlsOverride rate is 14 percent; raising the ceiling before that settles imports the error into production.rejected on evidence
Move the exception tail to the spine$1116k transitionLoses local context. Rework risk on the cases that are hardest to recover.under review
authored by Portfolio Bets Agentratifier VP Innovation3 stated assumptions
RD2-POS-101

Innovation Portfolio Operating Position

Supersededv3

Should program work stay in the shared transaction spine, or come back inside the function where the context lives?

Keep the repeatable program volume in the spine and pull the exception tail back into the function. The spine is cheaper per unit; the tail is where the context that prevents rework actually sits.

confidence

66%

The challenge — Innovation Portfolio Challenger Agent

Innovation Portfolio Challenger Agent argues the recommendation leans on 3 quarters of data from a period with no volume shock. The confidence band overlaps the alternative, and the position does not say what it would take to be wrong. Recorded as a dissent, not a block.

Break conditions

  • ·Override rate rises above 14 percent for two consecutive months
  • ·Cost per program stops falling while volume keeps rising
  • ·A comparator publishes a materially lower unit cost on a like-for-like basis

Evidence gaps

  • ·No external comparator on a like-for-like unit definition
  • ·Exception cases under $59k are sampled, not fully measured
Alternative consideredCostRiskVerdict
Hold the current position$157k run rateKnown and priced. Cedes ground if comparators move faster.live
Raise the ceiling one level now$271k to build controlsOverride rate is 10 percent; raising the ceiling before that settles imports the error into production.rejected on evidence
Move the exception tail to the spine$985k transitionLoses local context. Rework risk on the cases that are hardest to recover.under review
authored by Portfolio Bets Agentratifier VP Innovation3 stated assumptions

Policy register

The rules the agents above are bound by. Version, owner, approver, and the agents each rule constrains.

RefRuleScopeOwner agentApproved byVersionStatus
RD2-POL-200

Innovation Portfolio Decision Envelope

Agents in this lane may act without a human when the program sits inside the stated value, risk and confidence envelope. Outside it, the unit holds at a gate with a named approver and a running clock.

binds 4 agents · EU · UK

envelopeInnovation Portfolio OrchestratorVP Innovationv5.1Superseded
RD2-POL-201

Innovation Portfolio Evidence Standard

Every autonomous decision writes inputs, the rule version applied, the model and prompt version, the output and a reversal path. An action with no evidence record is treated as a control failure, not a fast decision.

binds 4 agents · US · Canada

evidenceInnovation Portfolio OrchestratorVP Innovationv2.2Active